Scenario thinking offers a way for individuals and groups to face up to the threats and opportunities of the future, and to their potential impact upon the organisation or community. It contains key components to promote the effective exchange of opinions and beliefs within a management team. The construction of multiple futures holds open airtime for differing opinions about the nature of the future, and provides a forum for the debate, questioning, and synthesis of complementary, contrasting, and conflicting viewpoints.
Essentially, scenario interventions within organisations construct multiple frames of future states of the external world, only some of which may be well-aligned with current strategy. Scenario thinking can facilitate "vigilance" in strategic thinking 鈥� in that alternative futures are thought through and strategic options can subsequently be evaluated against these futures.
Key themes
- improving scenario development methods
- Delphi methods
- strategic foresight
- cognitive basis of scenario thinking
- effective facilitation of scenario development in management teams
Our areas of research
- Delphi method
- Scenario methods
- Group-based facilitation
- Futures thinking
Editorial roles
Members of the group hold the positions of Editor-in-Chief of 鈥淔utures and Foresight Science鈥� (Wiley), Editor-in-Chief of 鈥淛ournal of Behavioral Decision Making鈥� (Wiley), Senior Editor of 鈥淒ecision Support Systems鈥� (Elsevier), Associate Editor of 鈥淚nternational Journal of Forecasting鈥� (Elsevier), and Associate Editor of 鈥淛ournal of Forecasting鈥� (Wiley).
Our PhD students
- Stephanie Bryson
- Mariam Al Mansouri
- Megan Grime
Recent publications
McKiernan, P., , (ABS 3 star)
McKiernan, P., Bowman, G., MacKay, R., Masrani, S., Storytelling and the Scenario Process: Understanding success and failure for special issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change, July 2012
Wright G, Cairns G and Bradfield R "Scenario methodology: new developments in theory and practice. Introduction to the Special Issue" Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 2013, 80, 561-565.
Wright G, Bradfield R and Cairns G "Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce "effective" scenarios?" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80, 631-642.
Cairns G, Ahmed I, Mullet J and Wright G "Scenario Method and Stakeholder Engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80, 1-10.
Derbyshire J and Wright G 鈥淧reparing for the future: Development of an 鈥榓ntifragile鈥� methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation鈥�, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, 82, 215-225.
Bradfield R, Cairns G and Wright G 鈥漈eaching scenario analysis 鈥� an action learning pedagogy鈥�, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015,100, 44-52
Cairns G, Goodwin P and Wright G 鈥淎 decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning鈥�, European Journal of Operational Research, 2016, 194, 323-335.
Cairns G, Wright, G and Fairbrother, P 鈥淧romoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios : a case analysis of the use of 鈥榮cenario improvisation鈥� method 鈥� Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 103, 97-108
Derbyshire, J and Wright G. 鈥溾�� International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, 254-266.
Bradfield, R, Derbyshire, J and Wright G. 鈥淭he Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology鈥� Futures, 2016, 77, 56-66.
Bolger, F and Wright, G. 鈥淯se of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: issues, analysis and directions鈥� International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, 230-243.
Cairns, G, Wright G, Fairbrother P and Phillips R, 鈥淏ranching scenarios: seeking articulated action for regional regeneration 鈥� a case study of limited success鈥� Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in press.
Rowe,E, Wright, G and Derbyshire, J, 鈥溾�� Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in press.
